FROM THE DESK OF RAJESH BAJAJ

Gold’s surge currently has a FOMO element mix!

Many market savvy & experts suggested that soon after the resumption if the lockdown of Covid 19, buyers went on revenge buying across the categories including Gem & Jewellery [GJ]. Now, today trade & bullion masters say, ‘Gold’s surge currently has a FOMO (fear of missing out) component!’

In the month of September 2025, World Gold Council [WGC] made the record straight & said, September record monthly ETF inflows took gold to its 39th new high for the year, finishing the month at US$3,825/oz (+12%) marking the highest return in a calendar year since 1979.

Dr. Renisha Chainani, Augmont analysed & noted for the week of October 6-10 October that, “gold crosses $4000 and silver touches $50, what next? With a 3% weekly gain and a 52% annual gain, gold prices have risen for the eighth consecutive week due to concerns about the global economy, with a record high of $50 and its eighth consecutive weekly gain, silver prices have increased by around 75% this year due to strong demand for safe-haven assets and ongoing supply bottlenecks.” Even those 39th new highs for the year had earned 47% year to date earlier.

Since Navratri and up to Diwali, buyers spent about rupees six trillion, excluding gem & jewellery. Because, in the updated report, Morgan Stanley India said, gold provides a buffer in the household balance sheet. In our estimates, households own 34,600 tonnes of gold, or approximately US$3.8 trillion /88.8% of GDP. [ The last reported figure was 25,000 tonnes.]

Even just ahead of Dhanteras, leading jewellery brand Senco player Suvankar Sen expected, “a value growth of around 20–25% in jewellery sales compared to last year, there has been a 12–15% dip in volume terms.” In the row, by reviewing Dhanteras & estimating Diwali jewellery buying festive season, Rajesh Rokde, Chairman – GJC said, “Across India, approximately 50 to 60 tonnes of jewellery were sold over the two days of Dhanteras, amounting to nearly ₹85 crore. The response has been fantastic, with all categories of jewellery witnessing strong demand.

In terms of volume, sales were on par with last year, but in value terms, we’ve seen a remarkable growth of 35–40%. Silver, in particular, has seen a surge—sales have nearly doubled as customers showed a clear preference for silver this season.

With Dhanteras spanning two days and coinciding with a weekend, followed by Diwali and Bhau Beej, the five-day festive window is expected to deliver exceptional results. We anticipate total sales reaching 100 to 120 tonnes, with a monetary value in the range of ₹1 lakh crore to ₹1.35 lakh crore.”

Analysis of the WGC that highlighted, 1: October is known for large equity sell offs, and risks are riding quite high, 2: Gold is generally a good hedge, but there may be concerns about its ability to respond given how stretched it looks, 3: In addition, a very oversold US dollar continues to pose a threat to gold, should a squeeze materialise. 4: However, our analysis suggests that these concerns are not warranted and that, absent a liquidity crunch, gold’s hedging credentials remain intact.

While Augmont listed drivers of gold & said, 1: 2025 has been the year of uncertainties- 1a: it started with political uncertainty, 1b: then tariff uncertainty, 1c: then geopolitical uncertainty, 1d: then rate cut uncertainty and 1e: now US shutdown uncertainty. All these uncertainties have supported bullion prices to rise phenomenally this year on safe-haven demand.

Additionally, a weaker dollar, robust central bank purchases, rising demand for gold-backed Exchange-Traded Funds, and growing interest from retail investors looking to hedge against rising trade and geopolitical tensions are all contributing factors to gold demand is listed by Dr. Renisha Chainani.

Bottom Line:

Recently, World Gold Council [WGC] published the report, A New Golden Age: Imagining the Future of Digital Gold. In the report, David Tait, CEO-WGC said, the rapid advancement of technology to meet the changing needs of our global society and economies has the disruptive potential to change the world as we know it. For the global gold industry that potential is vast, offering the opportunity to drive change not just in the sector itself but the opportunity to improve accessibility and transparency, enriching lives and societies around the world.

Dead End:

“My hope is that this report inspires the industry, investors and the innovators beyond it to rethink their perception of gold. It is an established, strategic asset today, but could be recreated into a digital asset for tomorrow,” said David Tait.