The platinum market recorded a deficit of 878 koz in 2023, the largest within WPIC’s data series. A market deficit is expected to continue through 2024, at 418 koz, with several of the ongoing market themes persisting. Notably, total platinum supply decreased by 2% in 2023 and is forecast to decrease by another 1% in 2024, leaving 2024 supply 6% below the average annual supply over the previous five years.
Supply risks are highly likely to remain in focus during 2024. The significant decline in the PGM basket price has eroded profitability at a number of operations and all of the major producers have announced plans to restructure their operations, the full implications of which are not yet clear. Indeed, there is even the potential for additional announcements to be made between the production and publication of this report.
Recycling supply is also a focus, Q4’23 was the weakest quarter in our time series, 2023 recycling was 25% below the preceding five-year average, and although a 7% recovery is expected in 2024, there are a number of risks to that outlook.
Demand, on the other hand, remains robust. Although total demand is expected to decline 6% in 2024, that is coming off the back of a record year for industrial demand in 2023, and is also the result of a weaker investment outlook for bar and coin in the US and Japan and expected ETF disinvestment due to the higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
Despite 2023 likely being the post-Covid peak for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle production, we are seeing a trend towards increased hybridisation, which is more PGM intensive and likely to support automotive demand well into the future.
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