Recently, World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), published Platinum Quarterly data set, which examines activity in the third quarter of 2023. It also includes a revised estimate for full-year 2023 and a first forecast for 2024. Independent analysis is provided by our research partner, Metals Focus.
The Foreword to the report provides an overview of supply and demand developments in the platinum market, as well as our view on issues and trends relevant to considering exposure to platinum as an investment asset. Key takeaways from the report are;
1: Platinum deficit of 353 koz forecast for 2024, with this year’s estimated deficit to reach a record 1,071 koz.
2: Both mining and recycling supply expected to be well below pre-Covid levels in 2023 and 2024.
3: Automotive demand continues to strengthen, up 14% this year, with a further 2% increase expected next year.
2023 will see the highest industrial demand on record, with 2024 the third-highest. 4: Investment demand forecast to remain positive in 2024.
At the Supply front, outlook indicate constraints in mining and recycling persist! Global mine supply for full-year 2023 is expected to be essentially flat year-on-year at 5,608 koz, remaining around 8% below the 5-year pre-Covid average production level. For 2024, global platinum mine supply is forecast to grow by 3% year-on-year to 5,743 koz, with a 5% improvement in South African output expected.
The global platinum recycling estimate for 2023 has been further downgraded to 1,471 koz. Headwinds are expected to continue in 2024, meaning global recycling of platinum is expected to see only a modest improvement in 2024, increasing by 7%.
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