The National Retail Federation today forecast that retail sales will increase in 2024 between 2.5% and 3.5% to between $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion. The announcement was made during NRF’s fourth annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual discussion on the health of American consumers and the retail industry.
“The resiliency of consumers continues to power the American economy, and we are confident there will be moderate but steady growth through the end of the year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Successful retailers offer consumers products and services when, where and how they want to shop with prices they want to pay.”
The 2024 sales forecast compares with 3.6% annual sales growth of $5.1 trillion in 2023. The 2024 forecast is in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6%.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 7% and 9% year over year to a range of $1.47 trillion to $1.50 trillion. That compares with non-store and online sales of $1.38 trillion in 2023.
NRF projects full-year GDP growth of around 2.3%, a slower speed than the 2.5% in 2023 but strong enough to sustain job growth. Inflation prices are also expected to moderate to 2.2% on a year-over-year basis, due to a cooling economy, the labor and product market coming into better balance and retreating housing costs.
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