According to the Platinum Quarterly Q1 2025, World Platinum Investment Council [WPIC], the outlook for Platinum Jewellery demand 2025 is expected to contract by 4% year-on-year. The outlook for the platinum market in 2025 has become increasingly uncertain due to the United States’ fluctuating trade policy, other nations’ responses and the consequent impact all this may have on the global economy.
At the time of writing, we have seen yet another executive order relating to US tariff policy (the third order in one month), underscoring how transient any forecast may prove to be this year. Against this backdrop, we continue to forecast a deep market deficit of 966 koz, as supply once again falls well short of demand.
Total supply for the full year is expected to reach 6,999 koz, a decline of 4% compared to 2024. Refined mine production is projected to contract by 6%, while secondary supply is estimated to grow by 3%. Total demand is forecast at 7,965 koz, 4% lower year-on-year. Although automotive and industrial demand are expected to contract, this will be partially offset by a recovery in the jewellery market.
At the demand front, the outlook of WPIC for 2025 said, global platinum demand is expected to contract by 4% year-on-year (-338 koz) to 7,965 koz in 2025. Automotive and industrial demand combined is estimated to decline by 430 koz, reflecting an ongoing shift to electrified powertrains and cyclical fluctuations in glass and chemical fabrication activities.
This contraction is expected to be partially offset by growth in jewellery demand, which is forecast to rise by 106 koz to 2,114 koz. Investment demand is projected to decline year-on-year by 2%, as softer ETF inflows compared to 2024 are expected to limit total investment demand to 688 koz.
Looking at the Jewellery demand front, Jewellery demand is expected to continue the recovery seen in 2024, increasing by 5% to 2,114 koz, a second consecutive year in excess of 2,000 koz. European demand this year is forecast to rise by 7% to a record high, with both bridal and the top-end brands contributing to gains. Much is due to a shift from white gold as more consumers and those in the trade either become aware of, or finally react to, price differentials.
In contrast, total jewellery sales may stagnate given an uncertain economic backdrop which is hitting both consumer purchases and the willingness of retailers to build stocks. Full year demand in North America is forecast to grow by 8%.
Sources remain confident that wedding and engagement numbers will normalise but most of the growth will flow through from yet wider gold and platinum metal price differentials (and the generous margins this opens up for retailers) plus yet lower diamond prices (especially lab-grown).
Uncertainty surrounding government policy (especially as regards tariffs), the hit to consumers’ wealth from recent stock market corrections and recession warnings may hit total jewellery sales, but platinum is expected to largely escape these downdrafts. Taking into account the much higher gold price than we had originally anticipated and Japanese jewellery’s strong performance in Q1, we have revised our 2025 forecast for Japanese jewellery upwards.
We now expect demand will increase by 5%, to its highest level in at least 15 years (for background, this compares to our earlier forecast of a small decline). Market share gains from gold will continue to drive this strength. In response to the better-than-expected Q1’25 performance for Chinese jewellery demand, along with the ongoing increase in jewellers’ stock-building activities, we have revised our 2025 growth forecast higher, from 5% to 15%, taking jewellery demand up to 474 koz.
In addition, some leading manufacturers’ successful product development, healthy demand for menswear and unisex designs, and retailers’ promotion via live broadcasting platforms will all support demand In India we expect fabrication to fall by 10% year-on-year to 240 koz due to declining exports amid US tariff uncertainty. Overseas shipments, which accounted for nearly 40% of fabrication last year, may drop below 30%.
Though exports are expected to decline, continued retail expansion in India will support domestic fabrication. While jewellers increasingly market platinum for its high profit margins, the growing appeal of bimetal platinum jewellery and the widening price gap with gold are expected to attract more buyers.
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