According to the outlook 2025 at the Platinum Quarterly by World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), looking ahead to 2025, the focus will remain on the impact of shifts in political leadership across various regions and the implications of that for both financial and precious metals markets. From a platinum supply perspective, with much of the restructuring completed in 2024, a period of consolidation is expected.
Outlook for the Platinum Supply from secondary sources is anticipated to recover to levels much closer to prepandemic ones and mine supply is expected to contract modestly by 2% to 5,550 koz. On the demand side, vehicle production is projected to improve as inflation stabilises and interest rates ease.
However, following several years of growth in the industrial sector, we do not expect the elevated levels of demand seen from the glass sector in 2023 and 2024 to continue. Investment demand is likely to strengthen, particularly with sustained interest from China. Consequently, we forecast a deficit of 539 koz for 2025.
Total platinum supply is expected to increase 1% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 7,324 koz. Refined mine supply in 2025 is expected to depend heavily on the volume of semi-finished inventory that South African producers are able to release.
At current PGM prices, the profitability of several operations remains’ marginal in South Africa, introducing heightened price sensitivity. Should PGM prices decline further, additional restructuring may become necessary, posing a downside risk to 2025 mine supply forecasts. In Russia, Nornickel faces ongoing procurement challenges, as some key Western suppliers have exited the Russian market, and access to international banking and debt markets remains restricted.
Given these challenges, Nornickel has withdrawn its medium-term production guidance, indicating that prior expansion plans may be difficult to achieve. As a result, Russian platinum mine supply is expected to remain stable in 2025. Overall, platinum mine supply in 2025 is projected to decline by 1% year-on-year, to 5,550 koz.
In 2025, with new vehicle supply
no longer constrained and drivers for hoarding (caused by political uncertainty and expectations of higher prices) diminishing. “We anticipate a return to more typical levels of spent autocatalyst recycling. Additionally, increased vehicle scrappage, following significant natural disasters, as well as potential extensions of government incentives, may further boost recycling volumes. Jewellery scrap is forecast to rise by 4% in 2025, largely driven by price rallies.
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