Global prices for jewelry-grade rough diamonds are expected to climb significantly from $125 per carat in 2024 to approximately $189 per carat in the coming years. This anticipated surge is driven by consistent demand for jewelry combined with an increasingly limited supply, according to a presentation by Kept, an audit and consulting firm.
Although high inventories of rough and polished diamonds had previously exerted downward pressure on prices, a tightening in supply is projected to push prices upward by more than 50%, as highlighted in Kept’s presentation. Kept Partner Igor Korotetsky mentioned that consumer demand is not expected to grow dramatically in the near future and is likely to remain steady at around $80 billion annually for the next two to three years.
“Since production volumes, according to forecast, will continue to decline accordingly, the supply of jewelry grade raw diamonds will respectively drop also within some midterm,” he explained. “Accordingly, we have the stable demand for jewelry. We have the limited supply in years to come. They [rough diamonds] may accordingly have the price increased by about 50% in two-three years,” Korotetsky added.
While he acknowledges the potential for unexpected market disruptions or black swan events, he pointed out that, in the absence of such developments, a limited supply paired with steady demand could push diamond prices to nearly $189 per carat.
Korotetsky also commented on the diamond industry’s existing resources, estimating that current reserves might be sufficient for roughly 72 years based on the annual mining rate of about 110 million carats. However, he noted that this estimate is heavily influenced by advancements in mining technology and economic viability.
“It turns out when looking at current technologies and viability, the global reserves are somewhat smaller. They turn out to be about 1.7-1.9 bln carats and this stands at 17 years and not at 72 thus far,” he stated. This global outlook assumes that no new major diamond deposits (Greenfields) are discovered or developed.
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