Given the complexities and specificities of the diamond value chain, there are several ways to translate long-term supply and demand fundamentals discussed in this report into a potential outlook for the industry (including for rough diamond values). Considering growing long-term demand and the likely constrained supply environment, a likely scenario for long-term nominal rough values indicates growth in the corridor of 3% to 5% CAGR from 2023 to 2033.
This growth is supported by economic foundations that bolster affordability and industry initiatives, such as marketing, to reinforce desirability in the US resulting in differentiation between natural diamonds and LGDs and building of desirability in Asia. The anticipated supply constraints further contribute to expectations of growth in values in the longer term, recognizing that values have been more challenged in the past years.
While long-term growth is expected, short-term volatility may arise from purchasing behaviors in the midstream. The most likely scenario above assumes that the factors adversely affecting diamond prices between 2020 and 2024-such as LGD demand, economic uncertainty, and midstream destocking-will subside.
Consequently, prices are projected to rebound to a pattern of long-term growth, albeit this upswing will be stronger from 2028 to 2033, coinciding with anticipated tighter supply constraints and the waning effect of LGD substitution.
The long-term growth outlook falls within the long-term range historically observed in the industry-while higher than the less than 1% annual growth rate (nominal) observed from 2013 through 2023, it remains below the higher historical growth rates (5% to 6% CAGR, nominal) observed in the preceding decade (2003 to 2013). The Future of the Natural Diamond Industry Report in collaboration with De Beers Group.
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