US retail sales picked up pace in October, signalling robust consumer momentum ahead of the holiday shopping period, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions.
Total retail sales, excluding autos and fuel, rose 0.6% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year. Core retail sales, which also exclude restaurants, matched the same monthly gain and were up 4.9% annually.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said October’s growth reflected “solid consumer spending supported by rising wages, low unemployment, and strong stock market wealth effects.” He added that these factors should sustain momentum as shoppers look for value-driven purchases this festive season.
Sales rose in seven of nine retail categories, led by digital products (+22.4% y/y), clothing (+7.9%), and sporting goods (+7.2%). Only furniture (-1.7%) and building supplies (-8.5%) saw declines.
The NRF forecasts holiday sales to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% in 2025, surpassing $1 trillion for the first time. Unlike Census Bureau data, the Retail Monitor draws from anonymised real-time credit and debit card transactions, providing a more immediate snapshot of consumer behaviour.
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