Recently, World Gold Council released their Gold Market Commentary for the month of February 2025. The Commentary reviewed the February; Gold hit new highs during the month, supported by a weaker US dollar, extending its y-t-d gains to 9%.
Gold continued its uptrend in February, hitting multiple new highs before pulling back to end the month at US$2,835/oz – up 0.8% m/m.1 This performance was echoed across major currencies, all of which also registered new record highs. General interest in gold was bolstered by continued flows of gold into COMEX inventories, driven by continued tariff uncertainty.
According to our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM), US dollar weakness during the month was one of the primary drivers of gold’s performance, alongside an increase in geopolitical risk and a drop in interest rates. And while gold’s strong price appreciation in January created a small drag, it was counterbalanced by positive support from flight-to-quality flows.
This was best illustrated by gold ETF activity, which saw massive net inflows of US$9.4bn (100t) – the strongest month since March 2022 – led by US- and Asian-listed funds.
From the reassessing risk and reward,
1: The Trump trade –stronger dollar and US stocks has taken a back seat amidst concerns about tariffs and hawkish foreign policies, conditions that will likely remain,
2: As governments look to increase military spending, budgets deficits are likely to increase and credit ratings to fall,
3: At the same time, despite inflationary pressures, markets expect a more dovish Fed, pricing in at least two full rate cuts by the end of the year &
4:These factors combined are creating a particularly supportive environment for gold.
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