Recently, the World Gold Council, published Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 report. That report said, In search of a catalyst! Gold has performed remarkably well in 2024, rising by 12% y-t-d and outpacing most major asset classes.
Gold has thus far benefitted from continued central bank buying, Asian investment flows, resilient consumer demand, and a steady drumbeat of geopolitical uncertainty. As we look forward, the key question in investors’ minds is whether gold’s momentum can continue or if it’s running out of steam.
With a few exceptions, the global economy is showing wavering growth indicators – eager for rate cuts – amid lower but still uncomfortable inflation. And the market’s outlook is not too dissimilar. Our analysis suggests that the gold price today broadly reflects consensus expectations for the second half of the year. However, things rarely go according to plan. And the global economy, as well as gold, seem to be waiting for a catalyst.
For gold, we believe the catalyst could come from falling rates in developed markets that attract Western investment flows, as well as continued support from global investors looking to hedge bubbling risks amid a complacent equity market and persistent geopolitical tensions.
Gold’s outlook is, of course, not without risks. A sizable drop in central bank demand or widespread profit-taking from Asian investors could curtail its performance. As it stands, however, global investors continue to benefit from gold’s role in robust asset allocation strategies.
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