DeBeers presented their market outlook in their preliminary financial results for 2024 report, near-term market conditions are expected to remain challenging in 2025 as polished pull-through remains subdued and industry players continue to manage inventory levels. In the medium-term, production cuts announced by a number of producers coupled with stabilisation of demand in China and a normalisation of industry inventory levels are expected to result in modest rough price growth. Consumer demand and retailer re-stocking are expected to be supported by marketing for natural diamonds, with the long-term outlook for the natural diamond industry remaining favourable.
Diamond provenance has the potential to further reinforce demand for De Beers’ ethically-sourced natural rough diamonds. Tracr, the pioneering diamond traceability platform, is now listing a single country of origin for all newly registered De Beers-sourced diamonds over 0.5 carats in polished size, aligning with the size threshold for new diamond import requirements for G7 countries.
Lab-grown diamond wholesale prices continue to fall and have further room to do so until they converge with the marginal cost of production. Long-term retailer incentives associated with lab-grown diamonds are expected to diminish, supported by growing consumer awareness of the low production cost and relative abundance of lab-grown diamonds, reinforcing their positions as different products. As the economics of selling lab-grown diamonds become more challenging, there are signs that retailers in the US are returning their focus to natural diamonds and this trend is expected to continue.
Presenting their Operational outlook DeBeers said, given market challenges, the Venetia project is undergoing a rescoping exercise to optimise the capital and production profiles. Production guidance for 2025 is 20–23 million carats (100% basis), reflecting the challenging rough diamond trading conditions. De Beers continues to monitor rough diamond trading conditions and will respond accordingly.
Production will then be increased steadily over the next two years to 28-31 million carats (100% basis) in 2027, as the business responds to the anticipated market recovery. The 2025-unit cost guidance is c.$94/carat (1), marginally higher than the 2024-unit cost of $93/carat, reflecting the impact of the lower volumes partially offset by cost saving initiatives and the benefit of the slightly weaker South African rand guidance spot FX rate.
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