Global jewelry fabrication in 2023 fell by 13% to 203.1Moz (6,318t). Though the decline was steep, that largely just reflects the record high in 2022, with volumes last year still up on 2019 despite the 44% jump in the annual average silver price since that year.
The vast bulk of 2023’s drop was due to India where high local prices, limited stock replenishment and competition from imports cut fabrication by 25% (27.9Moz / 868t). However, that fall was from a record high and offtake was still the second highest on record thanks to a booming economy.
Outside of India, offtake only fell a modest 3% in 2023. Much of that was due to weak consumption in North America and Europe plus destocking by retailers, both of which also hit suppliers in East Asia. Chinese demand also eased due to poor consumer sentiment and competition from gold jewelry.
Global demand in 2024 is forecast to rise by 4%, chiefly due to sales gains and restocking in India, although any periods of unexpected price strength and market share losses to Thailand could easily curb its growth. Consumption growth and restocking is also expected in the West.
In the front of Middle East, Jewelry demand in the Middle East fell by 1% in 2023 to 11.0Moz (342t). Turkey, the largest fabricator, saw a decline of 5% which was driven by a 2% fall in exports after a record 2022 and by higher jewelry imports. Local sales, however, rose by 9% as consumers were not deterred by exceptionally high inflation and purchased ahead to preserve some buying power.
For 2024, we forecast a 5% rise in regional offtake as export growth is forecast to pick up.
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