Gold reached another historic milestone on 8 October 2025 as it broke through US$4,000/oz. And while it finished the week below the record high, it’s en route to mark its strongest performance in a calendar year since 1979. The comparison to gold’s move in the late 1970s has generated a lot of buzz as investors assess whether this most recent leg up is signalling a continuation of the trend or the start of a reversal.
Recently World Gold Council [WGC] published & said further; indeed, gold has been gaining ground fast. But it’s important to put things into perspective. As we noted when gold surpassed US$3,000/oz, round-number milestones carry more psychological and technical weight than fundamental meaning.
And it’s not just gold’s performance in a single year, but the length and underlying drivers of a bull run that should be the centre of attention. For example, gold’s recent run remains below the average duration and magnitude of previous bull runs.
By concluding, WGC said, gold marked a new milestone as it reached US$4,000/oz. Its future path will depend on how investors respond to tactical and fundamental factors. In our view, comparisons to 1979 are enticing but misleading. There are reasons to believe that gold’s run has not run out of steam, especially in the broader macroeconomic context.
For example: high real rates that are likely coming down, tight credit spreads that can widen, lofty stock markets that can easily correct, among others. Short-term volatility may arise from portfolio rebalancing, market corrections, and technical signals, while long-term resilience is underpinned by a broadening investor base, persistent policy uncertainty, and a gold investment market that still has room to grow.
In our view, gold’s strategic strengths continue to balance the tactical risks as this new stage unfolds.
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