Total gold supply increased in Q2 by 4% y/y (Year on Year). This was driven by strong mine production of 929t – an all-time Q2 high in our data series, which dates back to 2000 – and a 4% y/y increase in recycling to 335t.
Preliminary estimates also suggest the net producer hedge book decreased by 6t in Q2, although the timing of this publication makes net producer hedging estimates subject to potentially meaningful revisions once the majority of mining companies have released their quarterly reports.
Early data for Q2 suggests that mine production increased 3% y/y to 929t, the strongest second quarter production level in our quarterly series going back to 2000, beating the previous 900t record set last year.
Combined with Q1 production of 859t – also a record for the time of year – this generated record H1 mine production of 1,788t – 2% more than the previous high set in H1 2023.
Note, however, that there is scope for revisions to the second quarter (and first half) mine production totals, due to the corporate reporting timetable and additional data on artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) becoming available in due course.
As an example of how this data can change, our initial estimate for Q1 mine production of 893t – published in Gold Demand Trends Q1 2024 – has now been reduced to 859t to reflect updates from Metals Focus that accompanied this quarter’s dataset. These changes mean that Q1 production increased only 1% y/y… nevertheless, a new first quarter record.
On a q/q basis, production increased by 8% due primarily to normal seasonal fluctuations that limit production in the first quarter when open pit and alluvial operations are reduced or halted in some very cold climates, especially Russia and other CIS countries. Similarly, South Africa’s gold mining industry is subject to reduced output during the long summer holidays over Christmas and the New Year.
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