According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), the platinum market is expected to record a deficit of 539 koz in 2025f. The deficit represents 7% of 2025f platinum demand with the market not expected to record large changes in either total supply (+1% year-on-year) or total demand (-1% year-on-year).
Platinum supply is expected to increase by 55 koz to 7,324 koz in 2025f. Growth in recycled autocatalyst supply to 1,346 koz (+170 koz, +14% year-on-year) will underpin higher total platinum supply. In contrast, mine supply is expected to be lower in 2025f (-133 koz, -2% year-on-year) as the impacts of restructuring in South Africa and North America during 2024 begin to reflect in production.
WPIC suggest that, a total platinum demand is expected to decline by 88 koz to 7,863 koz in 2025f. While automotive, jewellery and investment demand are expected to increase, 2025f demand will be impacted by a 9% year-on-year decline in industrial demand predominantly due to negligible new glass capacity additions.
Platinum’s market trends are entrenching themselves to support a third year of consecutive deficits. Platinum demand is proving resilient against the backdrop of global uncertainty while, platinum supply shows no sign of returning to pre-pandemic levels as PGM basket prices are not incentivising investment in growth. The result of ongoing deficits is rapidly depleting above-ground stocks, which, are forecast to decline by 40% over the three years to 2025f.
The economic outlook as it pertains to platinum demand has improved since our previous Platinum Quarterly, albeit there are several moving parts. Firstly, central banks have begun cutting interest rates as inflation has trended to targets. Easing monetary policy is likely to be supportive of new vehicle purchases or larger industrial investments as financing headwinds reduce. Secondly, China has announced its intentions to support its economy through stimulus. It is worth noting that China is the world’s single largest platinum end-market, and demand may be a beneficiary of pro-growth policies.
Finally, the US elections have concluded with the Republicans taking the White House. The incoming government could be an obstacle for developing the US’ nascent hydrogen industry, given prior criticism of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). However, it is unclear whether hydrogen incentives are to be scrapped given Republican states have been greater beneficiaries of the IRA.
Moreover, any rolling back of environmental legislation in the US is likely to impact the automotive sector in two ways. First due to a slower rate of BEV adoption and second as a result of less stringent or delays in implementing emissions legislation. Accordingly, PGM demand would likely be a net beneficiary in the short and medium-term.
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