Recently World Platinum Investment Council – WPIC publish Platinum Quarterly data set, which examines activity in the fourth quarter and full year 2024. It also includes a revised forecast for 2025. Independent analysis is provided by our research partner, Metals Focus.
This edition of Platinum Quarterly presents platinum supply and demand developments for the fourth quarter of 2024, final estimates for 2024 and an updated forecast for 2025f. It also provides WPIC’s views on relevant issues and trends for investors considering exposure to platinum as an investment asset, plus an update on how our product partnerships continue to benefit investors.
Key information from the report, which can be downloaded here, is highlighted below,
1: Full year 2024 deficit of almost 1Moz and 2025 forecast deficit up 57% to 848 koz on updated forecast.
2: Total supply up 3% in 2024 and is forecast to reduce 4% in 2025.
3: Automotive demand at 3,130 koz in 2024 and 3,102 koz in 2025 despite headwinds.
4: Jewellery demand up 8% in 2024, to grow 2% in 2025 to 6-year high.
5: Investment demand up 77% in 2024 on strong exchange traded fund (ETF) inflows and large bar demand in China. 6: Above ground stocks fell 23% in 2024 and to fall 25% in 2025 to 2,535 koz, less than four months’ worth of demand.
The platinum market recorded a significant deficit of 995 koz for full year 2024 (46% higher than previously forecast) as total demand exceeded 8 Moz for the first time since 2019. Strong investment demand – propelled by some 268 koz of ETF and exchange stock inflows in the final quarter of the year – and growth in jewellery demand, saw total demand increase 5% year-on-year to reach 8,288 koz, while total supply reached 7,293 koz, up 3% year-on-year.
A third consecutive deficit is forecast for 2025, which has also deepened, and is now forecast at 848 koz. Demand in 2025 is anticipated to be 5% lower at 7,850 koz – still well above the five-year average since 2020 – while total supply is projected to decrease by 4% year-on-year to 7,002 koz.
Mine supply to contract 5% in 2025, with a sharp reduction to forecast recycled supply
In 2024, global mining supply rose 3% year-on-year to 5,766 koz, driven by stronger-than-expected output from South Africa and Russia. For 2025, refined platinum mine supply is forecast to contract by 5% year-on-year to 5,506 koz on palladium-related decline in North America and reduced output in South Africa, with much lower expectations for work-in-progress inventory releases. Meanwhile, downside risks, such as the persistently low platinum group metal (PGM) basket price that has resulted in significant restructuring, remain.
Global recycling continued to face headwinds in 2024, declining 1% to 1,486 koz, the lowest level in the Platinum Quarterly time series going back to 2013. In 2025, these headwinds will continue. Recycling supply is expected to increase only marginally to 1,496 koz (+1%), reflecting ongoing constraints in the supply of spent autocatalysts (despite data indicating that global deregistrations have increased), as well as further declines in jewellery recycling.
It is worth noting that the recycling supply forecast for 2025 has been revised downwards significantly since our last forecast by 278 koz, as the anticipated improvement in the market is now considered unlikely to materialise in the near-term.
Jewellery to grow for second consecutive year – 2025 demand over 2 Moz, a 6-year high
Global platinum jewellery demand increased 8% year-on-year (+144 koz) to 1,993 koz in 2024, with growth across all regions. India saw a 31% year-on-year surge, while both Europe and North America achieved record highs. In the latter, platinum enjoyed market share gains against white gold. Platinum jewellery demand in China improved 1% year-on-year, marking a slight turnaround after consecutive years of decline dating back to 2014.
In 2025, jewellery demand is set to reach 2,027 koz (+2%), exceeding 2 Moz for the first time since 2019, with 5% and 7% growth anticipated in China and India, respectively, while Europe and North America reach new record highs. Platinum’s significant price differential to gold will continue to be a key driver of demand growth.
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