In the recently published, Gold Market Commentary; for the month of September 2025 by World Gold Council [WGC] say about gold, New highs…but is there more uplift? Record monthly ETF inflows took gold to its 39th new high for the year, finishing the month at US$3,825/oz (+12%). Y-t-d gold is up 47%, marking the highest return in a calendar year since 1979.
Our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) suggests political tension, strong options market activity, and currency weakness played a key role in gold’s performance last month. The only drag came from some rebalancing and profit-taking – captured in a gold price lag in the model and reflected in the intraday price dip on 30 September, which was quickly bought.
Gold ETF flows recorded their strongest month on record. Net inflows of US$17.3bn (146t) were dominated by North America (US$10.6bn) and Europe (US$4.4bn); Asia joined the rally (US$2.1bn) and other regions reported modest inflows. COMEX managed money net longs participated in gold’s upward price action, adding US$9bn (+33t).
Looking at the front of Equities, WGC say, it is on edge, again! WGC high lights,
1: October is known for large equity sell offs, and risks are riding quite high,
2: Gold is generally a good hedge, but there may be concerns about its ability to respond given how stretched it looks,
3: In addition, a very oversold US dollar continues to pose a threat to gold, should a squeeze materialise.
4: However, our analysis suggests that these concerns are not warranted and that, absent a liquidity crunch, gold’s hedging credentials remain intact.
September is, on average, the worst calendar month for US stocks and October is known for big corrections, making this a generally nervous time for equity investors. The likely threat to equities is acute, given lofty valuations, goldilocks earnings projections, high market concentration, extended positioning, and technical red flags.
Gold is a great long-run diversifier and a good short-run hedge against equity drawdowns. But because gold is not a contractual hedge, the good performance during equity corrections isn’t guaranteed.
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