Despite this week’s stumble, gold prices could extend gains as central banks and ETFs buy in, anticipating Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar. Morgan Stanley enlists four takeaways;
1: Gold prices, which are up nearly 50% in 2025, are likely to add more gains by the end of 2026.
2: Gold surpassed the share of U.S. Treasuries in central bank reserves for the first time since 1996, while ETFs backed by gold keep posting record inflows.
3: Higher prices could dampen demand for gold, with jewelry consumption already showing signs of weakness.
4: A super-cycle of capital investments by gold producers is unlikely, due to permitting and regulatory hurdles.
Gold broke a new record high on October 10, surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time, and continued to climb since then. On October 21, the rally hit a wall, with a drop of as much as 6%, the biggest daily loss in 12 years. Still, gold has surged about 50% in 2025, cementing its status as one of 2025’s top-performing assets.
The price increases are a reaction to major policy, geopolitical and economic developments this year, including tariffs, the Israel-Hamas conflict, concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence and the U.S. government shutdown.
Morgan Stanley Research expects the rally to continue and revised its 2026 gold forecast upward to $4,400 per ounce, a significant increase from its previous estimate of $3,313. The new projection implies an additional gain of about 10% from early October to the end of next year.
“Investors are watching gold not just as a hedge against inflation, but as a barometer for everything from central bank policy to geopolitical risk,” says Morgan Stanley Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist Amy Gower. “We see further upside in gold, driven by a falling U.S. dollar, strong ETF buying, continued central bank purchases and a backdrop of uncertainty supporting demand for this safe-haven asset.”
Offical Facebook account of heerazhaveraat.com, homepage for Trade News, Articles and Promotion of D
Stepping into a night where intentions shine as bright as diamonds. Capturing the magic of De Beers Group’s Manifestival 2026, where dreams, desires, and cosmic energy come together.
4
Heera Zhaveraat (HZ International) A Diamond, Watch and Jewellery Trade Promotion Magazine provide dealers and manufactures with the key analytical information they need to succeed in the luxury industry. Pricing, availability and market information in the Magazine provides a critical edge.
