According to the World Gold Council (WGC) report on H2, 2025, “Our analysis, based on our Gold Valuation Framework, suggests that, under current consensus expectations for key macro variables, gold could remain rangebound in H2, closing roughly 0%–5% higher than current levels, equivalent to a 25%–30% annual return.”
Technical indicators suggest that gold’s consolidation phase over the past few months is a healthy pause in a broader uptrend, helping to ease previous overbought conditions and potentially setting the stage for renewed upside.
Falling interest rates and continued uncertainty would maintain investor appetite, particularly via gold ETFs and OTC transactions. At the same time, central bank demand is likely to remain robust in 2025, moderating from its previous records while staying well above the pre-2022 average of 500-600t.
However, elevated gold prices are likely to continue to curb consumer demand and potentially encourage recycling. This would act as a damper to stronger gold performance. As we have discussed in the past, looking at consensus expectations often implies a rangebound performance, likely indicating that gold is efficiently reflecting all the currently available information.
As such, it is important to understand the conditions that may push gold higher or lower from here.
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