Recently the World Gold Council [WGC] released the report for, Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2025 and asked the question, Downhill or second wind?
under the Downhill or second wind? report said, gold has continued its record-setting pace, rising 26% in US dollar terms in the first half of 2025 – and reaching double-digit returns across currencies. A combination of a weaker US dollar, rangebound rates and a highly uncertain geoeconomic environment has resulted in strong investment demand.
As we look forward, one of the questions investors continue to ask is whether gold has reached a peak or has enough fuel to push higher. Using our Gold Valuation Framework, we analyse what current market expectations imply for gold’s performance in the second half of 2025, as well as the drivers that could push gold higher or lower, respectively.
If economists and market participants are correct in their macro predictions, our analysis suggests that gold may move sideways with some possible upside – increasing an additional 0%-5% in the second half. However, the economy rarely performs according to consensus.
Should economic and financial conditions deteriorate, exacerbating stagflationary pressures and geoeconomic tensions, safe-haven demand could significantly increase, pushing gold 10%-15% higher from here. On the flipside, widespread and sustained conflict resolution – something that appears unlikely in the current environment – would see gold give back 12%-17% of this year’s gains.
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